First, McJoan of the DailyKos said that Raul will make a tougher opponent than Ward would have. Her basic argument was that Labrador will make a better candidate just because Ward was such a ridiculously embarrassing screw-up that *anyone* would have to be better than Ward. I think she also said something about Labrador's potential appeal to moderates.
Then, Sisyphus came in with some impressive analysis. I'll break it down into three quick main points here just for the sake of posterity. (1) Labrador, like Sali, pissed off the moderate wing of the Idaho Republican Party by supporting the ousting of Kirk Sullivan, (2) "Labrador's anemic fundraising is evidence of the fact that the same informal coalition that got Minnick elected is still in tact.", and (3) teabagger enthusiasm has waned in Idaho (as evidenced by the incredibly poor turnout for the recent Palin event). So, Sisyphus disagrees with McJoan and believes Raul will be an easier candidate for Minnick to run against than Ward would have.
All of this analysis is very interesting, I think, and relevant/helpful if we are to analyze Idaho’s political climate and make political decisions in light of such analysis. I would like to take it down a slightly different direction. I’d like to explore how Raul’s Latino background might influence CD1 Latino voting patterns.
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My starting thoughts (completely prima facie b/c I’m not currently anything close to an expert on Idaho Latino voting patterns) are that it seems to me like Raul’s Latino background may win him votes. I mentioned my idea to a few people, most of whom informed me that CD1 Latino voting turnout is very low. I also found this article, which implied the same thing. I looked for hard evidence to back this claim up, but could not find any. I felt like I’d hit a dead end, so I turned elsewhere.
I contacted Dr. Gary Moncrief, a well-known and highly respected Boise State University Political Science Professor, and author of four books. I asked him where I could find information on CD1 Latino voting patterns:
Moncrief: it is not possible to know specifically how latinos vote in the first CD, because (obviously) ballots are secret. There are only two ways to infer--one is from polling data that breaks out voters by ethnicity. I doubt there is any such data for the 1st CD. The best you can really do is look at the vote patterns by precinct, matching precinct data to census bureau data at the block level. The problem, of course, is that until the new census data is released next year, you are dealing with data that is almost 10 years old. Nonetheless, that is the standard way to do the sort of analysis you want. It is also true that many latinos are not registered to vote, and that complicates the analysis a bit.
I offer 3 points of analysis:
1. It seems like it may be currently impossible to get the type of voting data I am talking about. I can’t seem to find any Idaho election results by precinct, though the Secretary of State Website says that the “official” election results will be available June 9th. I am not sure if those results will include a precinct breakdown or not, but that would be good if it did.
2. Of course, even if it did we would still have to use Census data from 10 years ago, which would indeed by very inaccurate.
3. Moncrief claims that “many latinos are not registered to vote”. He is certainly an expert, and so I take him for his word on this, but I do wonder if there is any hard evidence to back this claim up.
Readers and friends, if you know of any way to find the information I am talking about, please let me know in the comments below. For now, in lieu of hard evidence, I would like to make a few subjective remarks about CD1 Latino voting patterns.
1. I’ve heard a few people point to Robert Vasquez as evidence that the Latino community won’t coalesce around a Latino who adopts Republican position just because s/he is Latino.
Readers and friends, if you know of any way to find the information I am talking about, please let me know in the comments below. For now, in lieu of hard evidence, I would like to make a few subjective remarks about CD1 Latino voting patterns.
1. I’ve heard a few people point to Robert Vasquez as evidence that the Latino community won’t coalesce around a Latino who adopts Republican position just because s/he is Latino.
2. I think it is safe to say that, so far, identity politics has not played a large role (or nearly any role at all) in Idaho politics.
3. However, I think it is also safe to say that outreach to the Latino community, by both parties, has been inadequate.
4. It seems to me, that if the Latino vote were more organized, issues that effect the Latino Community would be more effectively addressed by CD1 politicians (and Democrats would probably benefit electorally).
5. Back to Raul, now. I think the strongest argument in favor of the idea that he will have no significant appeal to the CD1 Latino Community is the fact that the CD1 Latino community does not have very much voting power right now (as evidenced by their supposed low turnout). This does not give him very much incentive to try to appeal to Latino voters. Further, we all know that the Latino community tends to vote Democrat, and I believe this is because the Latino community agrees with Democratic policy positions. Raul’s policy positions, in general, are likely to be viewed negatively by the Latino community.
6. However, there is still the potential that the Latino community could coalesce around Raul. Not very many Latinos have run for National office in Idaho.
7. Robert Vasquez ran in 2006 for the same seat and did not gain the support of the Latino community. This is true. However, he was an anti-immigration firebrand to the Nth degree. He pushed the Latino community away by making anti-immigration policy issues his number one issue. As such, I do not think his candidacy provides a very good example of how the CD1 Latino community is likely to react to a more moderate Latino candidate. By contrast, Raul is far from an anti-immigration firebrand. He has spent a lot of time as an immigration lawyer. He might be extra formidable if he can walk that tightrope between assuring Latino’s that he is sympathetic to their cause and assuring xenophobic Idahoans that he is also on their side. This, of course, may be impossible. More likely, he will spend a good chunk of his campaign trying to befriend the xenophobes.
Final analysis: There does not seem to be any hard data anywhere on CD1 Latino voting patterns. This is something the IDP should work on to garner. If I had to make a guess, I would guess that Raul’s strategy will be to ignore the Latino vote in favor of the more conservative vote. He will probably try to show how much more conservative than Minnick he is, in which case it would not make much sense for him to make a play for the Latino vote. Also, we must consider that Raul will not be able to procure the votes of many xenophobic Idahoan Republicans. How many Idaho Republicans will turn their nose at Labrador?
Final analysis: There does not seem to be any hard data anywhere on CD1 Latino voting patterns. This is something the IDP should work on to garner. If I had to make a guess, I would guess that Raul’s strategy will be to ignore the Latino vote in favor of the more conservative vote. He will probably try to show how much more conservative than Minnick he is, in which case it would not make much sense for him to make a play for the Latino vote. Also, we must consider that Raul will not be able to procure the votes of many xenophobic Idahoan Republicans. How many Idaho Republicans will turn their nose at Labrador?
Anyway, I started this analysis because I wanted to answer the question of whether or not the Latino community might coalesce around Raul's candidacy. In short, I do not think this will happen, but I do think it is something the Minnick campaign should be prepared for. My exploration of CD1 Latino voting patterns has, however, left me with the thoughts that (1) Democrats need to encourage voting within the Latino community, not just because it is likely to benefit them electorally but also because it would very likely benefit Idaho's Latino community as well, and (2) Democrats need to keep statistics on Latino voting patterns, especially in CD1. Most of all, after having really analyzed the issue in-depth, I feel a lot less worried about Labrador's candidacy.
